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Krasnodar 2 vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
7/24/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Krasnodar 240%
×Draw28%
Arsenal Tula32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.25
Arsenal Tula
1.09

Krasnodar 2 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 68 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
68%
Krasnodar 2 or Arsenal Tula
72%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
60%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
71%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
36%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
13%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
66%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
30%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
55%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
40%
level
28%
Arsenal Tula scores more
32%

Krasnodar 2 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Arsenal Tula

Arsenal Tula beat Krasnodar 2 3-0 in First League on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.