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Krasava Ypsonas vs Omonia Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

Krasava Ypsonas
Krasava Ypsonas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
10/19/20251. Division1. Division · Round 7Ammochostos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Krasava Ypsonas32%
×Draw27%
Omonia Nicosia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Ypsonas
1.17
Omonia Nicosia
1.35

Omonia Nicosia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 118 away

creates per match

Krasava Ypsonas
1.24
Omonia Nicosia
1.57

allows per match

Krasava Ypsonas
1.12
Omonia Nicosia
1.10

finishing

Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par
Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Ypsonas ↓

Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krasava Ypsonas or draw
59%
Krasava Ypsonas or Omonia Nicosia
73%
Draw or Omonia Nicosia
68%

Winning margin

Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+
13%
Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals
69%
Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals
33%
Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals
11%
Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals
74%
Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
39%
Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)
44%
Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Ypsonas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Ypsonas attack 1.24 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Krasava Ypsonas scores more
32%
level
27%
Omonia Nicosia scores more
41%

Omonia Nicosia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Omonia Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Omonia Nicosia

Omonia Nicosia beat Krasava Ypsonas 2-1 in 1. Division on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Ammochostos Stadium in Larnaca.