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Krasava Ypsonas vs Olympiakos — League #319 2026

Krasava Ypsonas
Krasava Ypsonas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Olympiakos
Olympiakos
I. Pankov 10'
Mauricio 28'
Vieirinha 24'
2/7/2025League #319League #319 · Promotion Round - 4Stadio Dasaki Achnas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Krasava Ypsonas14%
×Draw24%
Olympiakos62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Ypsonas
0.67
Olympiakos
1.69

Olympiakos creates 152% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Krasava Ypsonas
0.77
Olympiakos
2.00

allows per match

Krasava Ypsonas
1.38
Olympiakos
0.57

finishing

Krasava Ypsonas+0.00on par
Olympiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Ypsonas ↓

Olympiakos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–116%
0–214%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krasava Ypsonas or draw
38%
Krasava Ypsonas or Olympiakos
76%
Draw or Olympiakos
86%

Winning margin

Krasava Ypsonas wins by 2+
4%
Olympiakos wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Krasava Ypsonas 1+ goals
49%
Krasava Ypsonas 2+ goals
15%
Krasava Ypsonas 3+ goals
3%
Olympiakos 1+ goals
82%
Olympiakos 2+ goals
50%
Olympiakos 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Krasava Ypsonas (draw refunded)
19%
Olympiakos (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Ypsonas at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Olympiakos away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Ypsonas attack 0.77 + Olympiakos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.67

Olympiakos attack 2.00 + Krasava Ypsonas defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krasava Ypsonas scores more
14%
level
24%
Olympiakos scores more
62%

Olympiakos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Olympiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
I. Pankov
24'
Vieirinha
28'
Mauricio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #319: Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Olympiakos

Olympiakos beat Krasava Ypsonas 2-1 in League #319 on February 7, 2025.

Goals: I. Pankov (10'), Vieirinha (24'), Mauricio (28').

The match was played at Stadio Dasaki Achnas in Dasaki Achnas.