Krasava Odintsovo 2–1 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Krasava Odintsovo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda St. Petersburg

M. Rabadanov 81'

R. Bashirov 57'

I. Zakharov 65' (OG)

10/19/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo53%

×Draw23%

Zvezda St. Petersburg24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasava OdintsovoExpected goals in this matchZvezda St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.11

Krasava Odintsovo

1.78

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.11

Krasava Odintsovo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

1.87

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.87

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.22

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.00

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw

76%

Krasava Odintsovo or Zvezda St. Petersburg

77%

Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg

47%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+

29%

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals

83%

Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals

53%

Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals

26%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

67%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

30%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)

69%

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more

53%

level

23%

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

24%

Krasava Odintsovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

23'

29'

37'

46'

D. Yashchuk← E. Vartanyan

57'

R. Bashirov

61'

E. Egorov← D. Kusaev

61'

M. Rabadanov← R. Bashirov

65'

I. ZakharovOwn goal

71'

S. Lavrenenko← S. Iljin

72'

Y. Galeev

79'

V. Kondratyuk← A. Tsogoev

81'

M. Rabadanov

87'

D. Yashchuk

89'

D. Pereverzev← A. Elovskikh

Krasava

Zvezda

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Chikishev

61'▲E. Egorov←▼D. Kusaev

61'▲M. Rabadanov←▼R. Bashirov

79'▲V. Kondratyuk←▼A. Tsogoev

89'▲D. Pereverzev←▼A. Elovskikh

Krasava Odintsovo substitutes

EgorovRabadanovKondratyukPereverzev

Manager: A. Koneev

46'▲D. Yashchuk←▼E. Vartanyan

71'▲S. Lavrenenko←▼S. Iljin

Zvezda St. Petersburg substitutes

YashchukLavrenenko

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 2–1 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Krasava Odintsovo beat Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 19, 2021.

Goals: R. Bashirov (57'), I. Zakharov (65' o.g.), M. Rabadanov (81').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Krasava Odintsovo vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 2–1 Zvezda St. Petersburg