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Krasava Odintsovo vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
CANC
00:00
Smolensk
Smolensk
9/30/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo62%
×Draw22%
Smolensk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.90
Smolensk
0.86

Krasava Odintsovo creates 121% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
84%
Krasava Odintsovo or Smolensk
78%
Draw or Smolensk
38%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
37%
Smolensk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
85%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
56%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
29%
Smolensk 1+ goals
58%
Smolensk 2+ goals
21%
Smolensk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
79%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
62%
level
22%
Smolensk scores more
16%

Krasava Odintsovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krasava Odintsovo face Smolensk (Second League - Group 2)

Second League - Group 2 returns with Krasava Odintsovo hosting Smolensk. Match starts September 30, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.