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Krasava Odintsovo vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
10/31/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo50%
×Draw26%
Kairat Moskva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.54
Kairat Moskva
1.00

Krasava Odintsovo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
75%
Krasava Odintsovo or Kairat Moskva
74%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
50%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
26%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
79%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
45%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
20%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
63%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
26%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
67%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
50%
level
26%
Kairat Moskva scores more
25%

Krasava Odintsovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 0–0 Kairat Moskva

Krasava Odintsovo and Kairat Moskva drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.