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Krasava Odintsovo vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
5/28/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo44%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moskva II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.52
Dinamo Moskva II
1.23

Krasava Odintsovo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Dinamo Moskva II
1.46

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Dinamo Moskva II
1.17

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
69%
Krasava Odintsovo or Dinamo Moskva II
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
56%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
78%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
45%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
59%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
44%
level
25%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
31%

Krasava Odintsovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 4–3 Dinamo Moskva II

Krasava Odintsovo beat Dinamo Moskva II 4-3 in Second League - Group 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.