Krasava Odintsovo 2–0 Baltika BFU: Result & Stats

Krasava Odintsovo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baltika BFU

D. Kusaev 83'

A. Kryuchkov 38'

8/7/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo49%

×Draw24%

Baltika BFU26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasava OdintsovoExpected goals in this matchBaltika BFU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.13

Krasava Odintsovo

1.65

Baltika BFU

1.13

Krasava Odintsovo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

1.87

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.87

Baltika BFU

1.25

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo

1.00

Baltika BFU

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Baltika BFU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw

74%

Krasava Odintsovo or Baltika BFU

76%

Draw or Baltika BFU

51%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+

26%

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals

81%

Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals

49%

Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals

23%

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

68%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

31%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)

65%

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more

49%

level

24%

Baltika BFU scores more

26%

Krasava Odintsovo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

A. Kryuchkov

46'

E. Butakov← N. Morozov

46'

M. Artemchuk← S. Chernenko

54'

V. Korobkin← A. Elovskikh

60'

D. Knyazev← Y. Petrovskiy

64'

D. Pereverzev← M. Chikanchi

77'

N. Zheymo← D. Volk

83'

D. Kusaev

84'

A. Shcherbatyuk← I. Mokaev

88'

E. Egorov← M. Rabadanov

Krasava

Baltika

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Chikishev

54'▲V. Korobkin←▼A. Elovskikh

64'▲D. Pereverzev←▼M. Chikanchi

88'▲E. Egorov←▼M. Rabadanov

Krasava Odintsovo substitutes

KorobkinPereverzevEgorov

Manager: A. Grishchenko

46'▲E. Butakov←▼N. Morozov

46'▲M. Artemchuk←▼S. Chernenko

60'▲D. Knyazev←▼Y. Petrovskiy

77'▲N. Zheymo←▼D. Volk

84'▲A. Shcherbatyuk←▼I. Mokaev

Baltika BFU substitutes

ButakovArtemchukKnyazevZheymoShcherbatyuk

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 2–0 Baltika BFU

Krasava Odintsovo beat Baltika BFU 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Kryuchkov (38'), D. Kusaev (83').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Krasava Odintsovo vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Krasava Odintsovo 2–0 Baltika BFU