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Kranuan vs Nakhon Pathom — FA Cup 2018

Kranuan
Kranuan
FT
0 – 3
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kranuan18%
×Draw21%
Nakhon Pathom61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kranuan
1.00
Nakhon Pathom
2.05

Nakhon Pathom creates 105% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kranuan
1.00
Nakhon Pathom
1.43

allows per match

Kranuan
2.67
Nakhon Pathom
1.00

finishing

Kranuan+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kranuan ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kranuan or draw
39%
Kranuan or Nakhon Pathom
79%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
82%

Winning margin

Kranuan wins by 2+
6%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Kranuan 1+ goals
63%
Kranuan 2+ goals
26%
Kranuan 3+ goals
8%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
87%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
61%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kranuan (draw refunded)
22%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kranuan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kranuan attack 1.00 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.43 + Kranuan defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kranuan scores more
18%
level
21%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
61%

Nakhon Pathom at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kranuan vs Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Kranuan 3-0 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.