Kranuan 0–5 Muang Loei United: Result & Stats

Kranuan

0 – 5

Muang Loei United

11/8/2020

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kranuan18%

×Draw19%

Muang Loei United63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KranuanExpected goals in this matchMuang Loei United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.33

Kranuan

1.17

Muang Loei United

2.33

Muang Loei United creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kranuan

1.00

Muang Loei United

2.00

allows per match

Kranuan

2.67

Muang Loei United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kranuan+0.00on par

Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kranuan ↓

Muang Loei United →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kranuan or draw

37%

Kranuan or Muang Loei United

81%

Draw or Muang Loei United

82%

Winning margin

Kranuan wins by 2+

Muang Loei United wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Kranuan 1+ goals

69%

Kranuan 2+ goals

33%

Kranuan 3+ goals

11%

Muang Loei United 1+ goals

90%

Muang Loei United 2+ goals

67%

Muang Loei United 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Kranuan (draw refunded)

22%

Muang Loei United (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kranuan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Muang Loei United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kranuan attack 1.00 + Muang Loei United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Muang Loei United attack 2.00 + Kranuan defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kranuan scores more

18%

level

19%

Muang Loei United scores more

63%

Muang Loei United at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Muang Loei United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff