Kramatorsk 2–3 VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Kramatorsk

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

9/21/2020

Persha Liga · Round 3Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kramatorsk45%

×Draw26%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KramatorskExpected goals in this matchVPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.17

Kramatorsk

1.51

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.17

Kramatorsk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

1.37

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kramatorsk

1.34

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

0.96

allows per match

Kramatorsk

1.37

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw

71%

Kramatorsk or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

74%

Draw or VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka

55%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+

22%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals

78%

Kramatorsk 2+ goals

44%

Kramatorsk 3+ goals

19%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 1+ goals

69%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 2+ goals

33%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)

60%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka attack 0.96 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kramatorsk scores more

45%

level

26%

VPK-Ahro Shevchenkivka scores more

29%

Kramatorsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff