Kramatorsk 0–1 Rukh Vynnyky: Result & Stats

Kramatorsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rukh Vynnyky

10/26/2019

Persha Liga · Round 15Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kramatorsk30%

×Draw27%

Rukh Vynnyky43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KramatorskExpected goals in this matchRukh Vynnyky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.34

Kramatorsk

1.08

Rukh Vynnyky

1.34

Rukh Vynnyky creates 24% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

1.34

creates per match

1.31

1.37

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Kramatorsk

1.34

Rukh Vynnyky

1.31

allows per match

Kramatorsk

1.37

Rukh Vynnyky

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Rukh Vynnyky+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Rukh Vynnyky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw

57%

Kramatorsk or Rukh Vynnyky

73%

Draw or Rukh Vynnyky

70%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+

12%

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals

66%

Kramatorsk 2+ goals

29%

Kramatorsk 3+ goals

10%

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

74%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

39%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)

41%

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Rukh Vynnyky away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.31 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kramatorsk scores more

30%

level

27%

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

43%

Rukh Vynnyky at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff