Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kramatorsk vs Olimpik Donetsk — Persha Liga 2019

Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
CANC
14:00
Olimpik Donetsk
Olimpik Donetsk
4/30/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 27Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kramatorsk39%
×Draw27%
Olimpik Donetsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kramatorsk
1.31
Olimpik Donetsk
1.19

Kramatorsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kramatorsk
1.34
Olimpik Donetsk
1.00

allows per match

Kramatorsk
1.37
Olimpik Donetsk
1.27

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par
Olimpik Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Olimpik Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw
66%
Kramatorsk or Olimpik Donetsk
73%
Draw or Olimpik Donetsk
61%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+
18%
Olimpik Donetsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals
73%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
38%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
14%
Olimpik Donetsk 1+ goals
70%
Olimpik Donetsk 2+ goals
33%
Olimpik Donetsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
54%
Olimpik Donetsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Olimpik Donetsk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Olimpik Donetsk defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Olimpik Donetsk attack 1.00 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kramatorsk scores more
39%
level
27%
Olimpik Donetsk scores more
34%

Kramatorsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kramatorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kramatorsk face Olimpik Donetsk (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Kramatorsk hosting Olimpik Donetsk. Match starts April 30, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kramatorsk host Olimpik Donetsk at Stadion Prapor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.