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Kramatorsk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
11/29/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 20Stadion Prapor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kramatorsk33%
×Draw26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kramatorsk
1.25
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.45

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kramatorsk
1.34
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Kramatorsk
1.37
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Kramatorsk+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kramatorsk ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kramatorsk or draw
58%
Kramatorsk or Alians Lypova Dolyna
74%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
67%

Winning margin

Kramatorsk wins by 2+
14%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kramatorsk 1+ goals
71%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
36%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
13%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
77%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
42%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
44%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kramatorsk at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kramatorsk attack 1.34 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Kramatorsk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kramatorsk scores more
33%
level
26%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
42%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kramatorsk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Kramatorsk 2-0 in Persha Liga on November 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Prapor in Kramatorsk.