Králův Dvůr 2–1 Zbuzany: Result & Stats

Králův Dvůr

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zbuzany

3/4/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 16Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Králův Dvůr58%

×Draw21%

Zbuzany21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Králův DvůrExpected goals in this matchZbuzany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.17

Králův Dvůr

2.06

Zbuzany

1.17

Králův Dvůr creates 76% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 15 away

1.93

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Králův Dvůr

1.93

Zbuzany

0.93

allows per match

Králův Dvůr

1.40

Zbuzany

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Zbuzany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw

79%

Králův Dvůr or Zbuzany

79%

Draw or Zbuzany

42%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+

35%

Zbuzany wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals

87%

Králův Dvůr 2+ goals

61%

Králův Dvůr 3+ goals

34%

Zbuzany 1+ goals

69%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

33%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)

73%

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Zbuzany away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Zbuzany defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Zbuzany attack 0.93 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more

58%

level

21%

Zbuzany scores more

21%

Králův Dvůr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff