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Králův Dvůr vs Táborsko II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Táborsko II
Táborsko II
6/8/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 30Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Králův Dvůr54%
×Draw21%
Táborsko II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
2.04
Táborsko II
1.31

Králův Dvůr creates 56% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
1.93
Táborsko II
1.22

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
1.40
Táborsko II
2.15

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Táborsko II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Táborsko II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
76%
Králův Dvůr or Táborsko II
79%
Draw or Táborsko II
46%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
32%
Táborsko II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
87%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
60%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
33%
Táborsko II 1+ goals
73%
Táborsko II 2+ goals
38%
Táborsko II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
69%
Táborsko II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Táborsko II away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Táborsko II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Táborsko II attack 1.22 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
54%
level
21%
Táborsko II scores more
24%

Králův Dvůr at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Králův Dvůr 0–1 Táborsko II

Táborsko II beat Králův Dvůr 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.