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Králův Dvůr vs Slavia Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Králův Dvůr
Králův Dvůr
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
3/9/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 17Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Králův Dvůr38%
×Draw22%
Slavia Praha II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Králův Dvůr
1.73
Slavia Praha II
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 40 away

creates per match

Králův Dvůr
1.93
Slavia Praha II
2.13

allows per match

Králův Dvůr
1.40
Slavia Praha II
1.52

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par
Slavia Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Slavia Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw
61%
Králův Dvůr or Slavia Praha II
78%
Draw or Slavia Praha II
62%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+
20%
Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals
82%
Králův Dvůr 2+ goals
52%
Králův Dvůr 3+ goals
25%
Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
83%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
52%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)
49%
Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Slavia Praha II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Slavia Praha II attack 2.13 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more
38%
level
22%
Slavia Praha II scores more
39%

Slavia Praha II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Králův Dvůr 0–4 Slavia Praha II

Slavia Praha II beat Králův Dvůr 4-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr in Králuv Dvůr.