Králův Dvůr 1–2 Jiskra Domažlice: Result & Stats

Králův Dvůr

FT

1 – 2

Jiskra Domažlice

8/4/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 1Městský Stadion Králův Dvůr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Králův Dvůr40%

×Draw24%

Jiskra Domažlice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Králův DvůrExpected goals in this matchJiskra Domažlice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.50

Králův Dvůr

1.59

Jiskra Domažlice

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 85 away

1.93

creates per match

1.61

1.40

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Králův Dvůr

1.93

Jiskra Domažlice

1.61

allows per match

Králův Dvůr

1.40

Jiskra Domažlice

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Králův Dvůr+0.00on par

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Králův Dvůr ↓

Jiskra Domažlice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Králův Dvůr or draw

64%

Králův Dvůr or Jiskra Domažlice

76%

Draw or Jiskra Domažlice

60%

Winning margin

Králův Dvůr wins by 2+

20%

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Králův Dvůr 1+ goals

80%

Králův Dvůr 2+ goals

47%

Králův Dvůr 3+ goals

21%

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals

78%

Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals

44%

Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Králův Dvůr (draw refunded)

53%

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Králův Dvůr at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Jiskra Domažlice away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Králův Dvůr attack 1.93 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jiskra Domažlice attack 1.61 + Králův Dvůr defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Králův Dvůr scores more

40%

level

24%

Jiskra Domažlice scores more

36%

Králův Dvůr at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Králův Dvůr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff