Kråkerøy 1–4 Ørn Horten: Result & Stats

Kråkerøy

FT

1 – 4

Ørn Horten

10/23/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 12Kråkerøy stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kråkerøy5%

×Draw11%

Ørn Horten84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KråkerøyExpected goals in this matchØrn Horten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

3.00

Kråkerøy

0.64

Ørn Horten

3.00

Ørn Horten creates 369% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.71

creates per match

3.29

2.71

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Kråkerøy

0.71

Ørn Horten

3.29

allows per match

Kråkerøy

2.71

Ørn Horten

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kråkerøy+0.00on par

Ørn Horten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kråkerøy ↓

Ørn Horten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–212%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kråkerøy or draw

16%

Kråkerøy or Ørn Horten

89%

Draw or Ørn Horten

95%

Winning margin

Kråkerøy wins by 2+

1%

Ørn Horten wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Kråkerøy 1+ goals

47%

Kråkerøy 2+ goals

14%

Kråkerøy 3+ goals

3%

Ørn Horten 1+ goals

95%

Ørn Horten 2+ goals

79%

Ørn Horten 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Kråkerøy (draw refunded)

6%

Ørn Horten (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kråkerøy at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Ørn Horten away — creates 3.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kråkerøy attack 0.71 + Ørn Horten defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.64

Ørn Horten attack 3.29 + Kråkerøy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Kråkerøy scores more

5%

level

11%

Ørn Horten scores more

84%

Ørn Horten at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff