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Kråkerøy vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Kråkerøy
Kråkerøy
FT
0 – 4
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
10/8/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 10Kråkerøy stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kråkerøy23%
×Draw20%
Fredrikstad II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kråkerøy
1.35
Fredrikstad II
2.21

Fredrikstad II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kråkerøy
0.71
Fredrikstad II
1.71

allows per match

Kråkerøy
2.71
Fredrikstad II
2.00

finishing

Kråkerøy+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kråkerøy ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kråkerøy or draw
43%
Kråkerøy or Fredrikstad II
80%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
77%

Winning margin

Kråkerøy wins by 2+
10%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Kråkerøy 1+ goals
74%
Kråkerøy 2+ goals
39%
Kråkerøy 3+ goals
15%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
89%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
65%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Kråkerøy (draw refunded)
29%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kråkerøy at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kråkerøy attack 0.71 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fredrikstad II attack 1.71 + Kråkerøy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kråkerøy scores more
23%
level
20%
Fredrikstad II scores more
57%

Fredrikstad II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kråkerøy vs Fredrikstad II

Fredrikstad II beat Kråkerøy 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Kråkerøy stadion in Kråkerøy.