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Kraké vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

Kraké
Kraké
FT
0 – 0
JSP
JSP
11/2/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 6Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kraké45%
×Draw31%
JSP24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraké
1.17
JSP
0.77

Kraké creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 107 away

creates per match

Kraké
0.97
JSP
0.80

allows per match

Kraké
0.73
JSP
1.37

finishing

Kraké+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraké ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kraké or draw
76%
Kraké or JSP
69%
Draw or JSP
55%

Winning margin

Kraké wins by 2+
20%
JSP wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kraké 1+ goals
69%
Kraké 2+ goals
33%
Kraké 3+ goals
11%
JSP 1+ goals
54%
JSP 2+ goals
18%
JSP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kraké (draw refunded)
65%
JSP (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraké at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

JSP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraké attack 0.97 + JSP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

JSP attack 0.80 + Kraké defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kraké scores more
45%
level
31%
JSP scores more
24%

Kraké at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kraké will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Kraké 0–0 JSP

Kraké and JSP drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.