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Kraké vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

Kraké
Kraké
FT
0 – 0
Ayema
Ayema
11/20/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 8Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kraké35%
×Draw34%
Ayema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraké
0.89
Ayema
0.80

Kraké creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 119 away

creates per match

Kraké
0.97
Ayema
0.88

allows per match

Kraké
0.73
Ayema
0.80

finishing

Kraké+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraké ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Kraké or draw
70%
Kraké or Ayema
66%
Draw or Ayema
65%

Winning margin

Kraké wins by 2+
12%
Ayema wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kraké 1+ goals
59%
Kraké 2+ goals
22%
Kraké 3+ goals
6%
Ayema 1+ goals
55%
Ayema 2+ goals
19%
Ayema 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kraké (draw refunded)
54%
Ayema (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraké at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraké attack 0.97 + Ayema defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ayema attack 0.88 + Kraké defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Kraké scores more
35%
level
34%
Ayema scores more
30%

Kraké at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Kraké will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kraké vs Ayema

Kraké and Ayema drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.