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Kraké vs Avrankou Omnisport — Championnat National 2019

Kraké
Kraké
FT
2 – 1
Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
4/27/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 28Stade Saint-Louis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kraké50%
×Draw29%
Avrankou Omnisport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraké
1.28
Avrankou Omnisport
0.70

Kraké creates 83% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kraké
0.97
Avrankou Omnisport
0.67

allows per match

Kraké
0.73
Avrankou Omnisport
1.59

finishing

Kraké+0.00on par
Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraké ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kraké or draw
80%
Kraké or Avrankou Omnisport
71%
Draw or Avrankou Omnisport
50%

Winning margin

Kraké wins by 2+
23%
Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kraké 1+ goals
72%
Kraké 2+ goals
37%
Kraké 3+ goals
14%
Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
50%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
16%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kraké (draw refunded)
71%
Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraké at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraké attack 0.97 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.28

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.67 + Kraké defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kraké scores more
50%
level
29%
Avrankou Omnisport scores more
20%

Kraké at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kraké will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Kraké 2–1 Avrankou Omnisport

Kraké beat Avrankou Omnisport 2-1 in Championnat National on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Louis in Seme-Kpodji.