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Kraig vs Velden — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
FT
0 – 3
Velden
Velden
3/23/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Kraig26%
×Draw22%
Velden52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
1.39
Velden
2.04

Velden creates 47% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Velden
2.48

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Velden
1.07

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Velden+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Velden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
48%
Kraig or Velden
78%
Draw or Velden
74%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
11%
Velden wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
75%
Kraig 2+ goals
40%
Kraig 3+ goals
16%
Velden 1+ goals
87%
Velden 2+ goals
60%
Velden 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
33%
Velden (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Velden away — creates 2.48, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Velden defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.39

Velden attack 2.48 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kraig scores more
26%
level
22%
Velden scores more
52%

Velden at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Velden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kraig 0 – 3 Velden

Velden beat Kraig 3-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Frauenstein in Kraig.