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Kraig vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
FT
2 – 2
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
5/17/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 30Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Kraig51%
×Draw21%
Maria Saal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
2.12
Maria Saal
1.52

Kraig creates 39% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 49 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
72%
Kraig or Maria Saal
79%
Draw or Maria Saal
49%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
30%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
88%
Kraig 2+ goals
62%
Kraig 3+ goals
35%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
78%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
45%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
65%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.12

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kraig scores more
51%
level
21%
Maria Saal scores more
28%

Kraig at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kraig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kraig vs Maria Saal

Kraig and Maria Saal drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Frauenstein in Kraig.