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Kraig vs Ferlach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
FT
1 – 0
Ferlach
Ferlach
10/6/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 12Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kraig46%
×Draw23%
Ferlach31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
1.73
Ferlach
1.38

Kraig creates 25% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 92 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Ferlach
1.16

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Ferlach
1.76

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Ferlach+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Ferlach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
69%
Kraig or Ferlach
77%
Draw or Ferlach
54%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
24%
Ferlach wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
82%
Kraig 2+ goals
52%
Kraig 3+ goals
25%
Ferlach 1+ goals
75%
Ferlach 2+ goals
40%
Ferlach 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
60%
Ferlach (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Ferlach away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Ferlach defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ferlach attack 1.16 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kraig scores more
46%
level
23%
Ferlach scores more
31%

Kraig at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kraig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Kraig 1–0 Ferlach

Kraig beat Ferlach 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Frauenstein in Kraig.