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Kraig vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
FT
2 – 1
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
3/11/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 20Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kraig46%
×Draw23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
1.76
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.41

Kraig creates 25% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 47 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
69%
Kraig or Feldkirchen Kärnten
77%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
54%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
24%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
83%
Kraig 2+ goals
52%
Kraig 3+ goals
26%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
76%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
41%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
60%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kraig scores more
46%
level
23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
31%

Kraig at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kraig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kraig 2 – 1 Feldkirchen Kärnten

Kraig beat Feldkirchen Kärnten 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Frauenstein in Kraig.