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Kraig vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Kraig
Kraig
CANC
00:00
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
4/19/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 21Sportanlage Frauenstein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Kraig38%
×Draw22%
Dellach im Gailtal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraig
1.77
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Kraig
1.71
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

Kraig
1.60
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

Kraig+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraig ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kraig or draw
60%
Kraig or Dellach im Gailtal
78%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
62%

Winning margin

Kraig wins by 2+
20%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kraig 1+ goals
83%
Kraig 2+ goals
53%
Kraig 3+ goals
26%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
84%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
54%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kraig (draw refunded)
49%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraig at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.60 · 62 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraig attack 1.71 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + Kraig defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kraig scores more
38%
level
22%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
40%

Dellach im Gailtal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kraig face Dellach im Gailtal (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with Kraig hosting Dellach im Gailtal. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kraig host Dellach im Gailtal at Sportanlage Frauenstein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.