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Kraft vs Tampere United — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kraft
Kraft
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Tampere United
Tampere United
7/28/2018Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 14Mosedal (Närpiö (Närpes))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kraft51%
×Draw22%
Tampere United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraft
1.90
Tampere United
1.30

Kraft creates 46% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kraft
1.88
Tampere United
0.82

allows per match

Kraft
1.78
Tampere United
1.91

finishing

Kraft+0.00on par
Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraft ↓

Tampere United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kraft or draw
74%
Kraft or Tampere United
78%
Draw or Tampere United
49%

Winning margin

Kraft wins by 2+
29%
Tampere United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kraft 1+ goals
85%
Kraft 2+ goals
56%
Kraft 3+ goals
29%
Tampere United 1+ goals
73%
Tampere United 2+ goals
37%
Tampere United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kraft (draw refunded)
66%
Tampere United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraft at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

Tampere United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraft attack 1.88 + Tampere United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tampere United attack 0.82 + Kraft defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kraft scores more
51%
level
22%
Tampere United scores more
26%

Kraft at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kraft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kraft vs Tampere United

Tampere United beat Kraft 4-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Mosedal (Närpiö (Närpes)).