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Kraft vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kraft
Kraft
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
RoPS II
RoPS II
8/29/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Mosedal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kraft39%
×Draw22%
RoPS II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraft
1.77
RoPS II
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kraft
1.88
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

Kraft
1.78
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

Kraft+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraft ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kraft or draw
62%
Kraft or RoPS II
78%
Draw or RoPS II
61%

Winning margin

Kraft wins by 2+
20%
RoPS II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kraft 1+ goals
83%
Kraft 2+ goals
53%
Kraft 3+ goals
26%
RoPS II 1+ goals
83%
RoPS II 2+ goals
52%
RoPS II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kraft (draw refunded)
51%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraft at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraft attack 1.88 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

RoPS II attack 1.73 + Kraft defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kraft scores more
39%
level
22%
RoPS II scores more
38%

Kraft at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kraft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Kraft 3–3 RoPS II

Kraft and RoPS II drew 3-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Mosedal in Närpes.