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Kraft vs FC Komeetat — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kraft
Kraft
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
7/24/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 8Mosedal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kraft62%
×Draw19%
FC Komeetat19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraft
2.35
FC Komeetat
1.21

Kraft creates 94% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kraft
1.88
FC Komeetat
0.64

allows per match

Kraft
1.78
FC Komeetat
2.82

finishing

Kraft+0.00on par
FC Komeetat+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraft ↓

FC Komeetat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kraft or draw
81%
Kraft or FC Komeetat
81%
Draw or FC Komeetat
38%

Winning margin

Kraft wins by 2+
40%
FC Komeetat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kraft 1+ goals
90%
Kraft 2+ goals
68%
Kraft 3+ goals
41%
FC Komeetat 1+ goals
70%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
34%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kraft (draw refunded)
77%
FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraft at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

FC Komeetat away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraft attack 1.88 + FC Komeetat defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.35

FC Komeetat attack 0.64 + Kraft defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kraft scores more
62%
level
19%
FC Komeetat scores more
19%

Kraft at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kraft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Kraft 3–0 FC Komeetat

Kraft beat FC Komeetat 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Mosedal in Närpes.