Krabi FC 2–3 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Krabi FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Trat FC

8/21/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 2Krabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Krabi FC40%

×Draw27%

Trat FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krabi FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.14

Krabi FC

1.31

Trat FC

1.14

Krabi FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 84 away

1.04

creates per match

1.20

1.08

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Krabi FC

1.04

Trat FC

1.20

allows per match

Krabi FC

1.08

Trat FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw

68%

Krabi FC or Trat FC

73%

Draw or Trat FC

60%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+

18%

Trat FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals

73%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

38%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

14%

Trat FC 1+ goals

68%

Trat FC 2+ goals

32%

Trat FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

56%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krabi FC scores more

40%

level

27%

Trat FC scores more

32%

Krabi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff