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Krabi FC vs Thai Honda FC — Thai League 2 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
1 – 2
Thai Honda FC
Thai Honda FC
9/9/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Krabi FC40%
×Draw28%
Thai Honda FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
1.28
Thai Honda FC
1.12

Krabi FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
1.04
Thai Honda FC
1.16

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.08
Thai Honda FC
1.52

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Thai Honda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Thai Honda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
68%
Krabi FC or Thai Honda FC
72%
Draw or Thai Honda FC
60%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
18%
Thai Honda FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
72%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
37%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
14%
Thai Honda FC 1+ goals
67%
Thai Honda FC 2+ goals
31%
Thai Honda FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
55%
Thai Honda FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Thai Honda FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Thai Honda FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.28

Thai Honda FC attack 1.16 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krabi FC scores more
40%
level
28%
Thai Honda FC scores more
32%

Krabi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Thai Honda FC

Thai Honda FC beat Krabi FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi).