Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krabi FC vs Samut Songkhram — FA Cup 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
7 – 2
Samut Songkhram
Samut Songkhram
9/30/2020FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krabi FC92%
×Draw5%
Samut Songkhram3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
5.38
Samut Songkhram
1.08

Krabi FC creates 398% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
4.00
Samut Songkhram
0.50

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.67
Samut Songkhram
6.75

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Samut Songkhram+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Samut Songkhram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (8%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
97%
Krabi FC or Samut Songkhram
95%
Draw or Samut Songkhram
8%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
82%
Samut Songkhram wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
99%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
96%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
86%
Samut Songkhram 1+ goals
66%
Samut Songkhram 2+ goals
29%
Samut Songkhram 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
97%
Samut Songkhram (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Samut Songkhram away — creates 0.50, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 4.00 + Samut Songkhram defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 5.38

Samut Songkhram attack 0.50 + Krabi FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Krabi FC scores more
92%
level
5%
Samut Songkhram scores more
3%

Krabi FC at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Samut Songkhram

Krabi FC beat Samut Songkhram 7-2 in FA Cup on September 30, 2020.