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Krabi FC vs Port FC — League Cup 2021

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port FC
Port FC
11/16/2022League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundSamut Songkhram Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Krabi FC34%
×Draw21%
Port FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
1.75
Port FC
2.00

Port FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
2.50
Port FC
2.50

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.50
Port FC
1.00

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
56%
Krabi FC or Port FC
79%
Draw or Port FC
66%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
17%
Port FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
83%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
52%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
25%
Port FC 1+ goals
86%
Port FC 2+ goals
59%
Port FC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
44%
Port FC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Port FC away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 2.50 + Port FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Port FC attack 2.50 + Krabi FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krabi FC scores more
34%
level
21%
Port FC scores more
44%

Port FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Krabi FC 1–0 Port FC

Krabi FC beat Port FC 1-0 in League Cup on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Samut Songkhram Stadium in Samut Songkhram.