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Krabi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
0 – 0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4/22/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Krabi FC35%
×Draw28%
Nong Bua Pitchaya37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
1.17
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 83 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
1.04
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
63%
Krabi FC or Nong Bua Pitchaya
72%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
65%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
15%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
69%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
33%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
11%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
70%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
34%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
49%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krabi FC scores more
35%
level
28%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
37%

Nong Bua Pitchaya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Krabi FC and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium (Krabi).