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Krabi FC vs Kamphaeng Phet — League Cup 2021

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
7 – 0
Kamphaeng Phet
Kamphaeng Phet
11/3/2021League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsKrabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krabi FC58%
×Draw18%
Kamphaeng Phet25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
2.92
Kamphaeng Phet
1.92

Krabi FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
2.50
Kamphaeng Phet
2.33

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.50
Kamphaeng Phet
3.33

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Kamphaeng Phet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
75%
Krabi FC or Kamphaeng Phet
82%
Draw or Kamphaeng Phet
42%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
38%
Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
94%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
78%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
55%
Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals
85%
Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals
57%
Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
70%
Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Kamphaeng Phet away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 2.50 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.33 + Krabi FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Krabi FC scores more
58%
level
18%
Kamphaeng Phet scores more
25%

Krabi FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Kamphaeng Phet

Krabi FC beat Kamphaeng Phet 7-0 in League Cup on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium in Krabi.