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Krabi FC vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
9/3/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Krabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Krabi FC37%
×Draw29%
Esan Pattaya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
1.16
Esan Pattaya
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
1.04
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.08
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
66%
Krabi FC or Esan Pattaya
71%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
63%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
16%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
69%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
32%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
11%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
66%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
30%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
52%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krabi FC scores more
37%
level
29%
Esan Pattaya scores more
34%

Krabi FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Esan Pattaya

Esan Pattaya beat Krabi FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium in Krabi.