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Krabi FC vs Chiangmai FC — FA Cup 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
5/1/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krabi FC54%
×Draw19%
Chiangmai FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
2.43
Chiangmai FC
1.69

Krabi FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
4.00
Chiangmai FC
1.71

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.67
Chiangmai FC
0.86

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
73%
Krabi FC or Chiangmai FC
81%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
46%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
34%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
91%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
69%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
43%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
82%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
50%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
67%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 4.00 + Chiangmai FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Chiangmai FC attack 1.71 + Krabi FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Krabi FC scores more
54%
level
19%
Chiangmai FC scores more
27%

Krabi FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krabi FC vs Chiangmai FC

Krabi FC and Chiangmai FC drew 0-0 in FA Cup on May 1, 2019.