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Krabi FC vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Krabi FC
Krabi FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
11/12/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Krabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Krabi FC37%
×Draw28%
Ayutthaya FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krabi FC
1.21
Ayutthaya FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

creates per match

Krabi FC
1.04
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Krabi FC
1.08
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw
65%
Krabi FC or Ayutthaya FC
72%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
63%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+
16%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals
70%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
34%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
12%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
69%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
33%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)
51%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krabi FC scores more
37%
level
28%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
35%

Krabi FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Krabi FC 2–1 Ayutthaya FC

Krabi FC beat Ayutthaya FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Krabi Provincial Stadium in Krabi.