KR Reykjavik 3–2 Keflavik: Result & Stats

KR Reykjavik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Keflavik

A. Palmason 88'

S. Geirsson 86'

A. Traustason 6'

S. Ljubicic 79', 55'

4/12/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KR Reykjavik57%

×Draw19%

Keflavik24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.57

KR Reykjavik

2.46

Keflavik

1.57

KR Reykjavik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

2.92

creates per match

1.27

1.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

KR Reykjavik

2.92

Keflavik

1.27

allows per match

KR Reykjavik

1.88

Keflavik

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KR Reykjavik ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

KR Reykjavik or draw

76%

KR Reykjavik or Keflavik

81%

Draw or Keflavik

43%

Winning margin

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

36%

Keflavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

91%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

70%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

44%

Keflavik 1+ goals

79%

Keflavik 2+ goals

46%

Keflavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

70%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KR Reykjavik attack 2.92 + Keflavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Keflavik attack 1.27 + KR Reykjavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KR Reykjavik scores more

57%

level

19%

Keflavik scores more

24%

KR Reykjavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Traustason↳ E. Saebjornsson

11'

H. Georgsson← A. Olafsson

55'

S. Ljubicic↳ M. Al Ghoul

64'

A. Palmason← H. Tomasson

64'

O. Kjartansson← G. Eyjolfsson

77'

H. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul

79'

S. Geirsson← L. Rae

79'

S. Ljubicic↳ E. Ragnarsson

81'

M. Mudrazija← S. Ljubicic

82'

A. Traustason

85'

D. Valsson

86'

E. Bjarnason← D. Valsson

86'

S. Geirsson↳ O. Kjartansson

88'

A. Palmason

90+5'

S. Magnusson

KR

Keflavik

1

22

4

5

13

6

8

23

A

Ragnarsso

7

▼

Valsson

11

A

▼

Ghoul

10

⚽2

▼

Ljubicic

1

▼

22

4

7

26

▼

Tomasson

21

▼

Eyjolfsso

17

▼

Rae

23

⚽

Traustaso

11

Sigurdars

19

Cosic

9

A

Saebjorns

Manager: Oskar Thorvaldsson

11'▲H. Georgsson←▼A. Olafsson

64'▲A. Palmason←▼H. Tomasson

64'▲O. Kjartansson←▼G. Eyjolfsson

79'▲S. Geirsson←▼L. Rae

KR Reykjavik substitutes

12Georgsson10Tryggvason8Geirsson15Gudbrandsson14Palmason6Sigurdarson29Albertsson77Kjartansson18Ragnarsson

Manager: Haraldur Gudmundsson

77'▲H. Al Ghoul←▼M. Al Ghoul

81'▲M. Mudrazija←▼S. Ljubicic

86'▲E. Bjarnason←▼D. Valsson

Keflavik substitutes

30Basic3Johannesson9Ghoul42Brynjarsson18Bjarnason14Mudrazija20Brigic26Kristjansson15Adalbjorssnos

Úrvalsdeild: KR Reykjavik 3–2 Keflavik

KR Reykjavik beat Keflavik 3-2 in Úrvalsdeild on April 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Traustason (6'), S. Ljubicic (55', 79'), S. Geirsson (86'), A. Palmason (88').

KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: KR Reykjavik 3–2 Keflavik