KR Reykjavik 2–2 Afturelding: Result & Stats

KR Reykjavik

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Afturelding

M. Akoto 90'

E. Saebjornsson 13'

A. Saevarsson 90' (pen)

E. Cogic 90'

10/4/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Relegation Round - 3KR-völlur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KR Reykjavik62%

×Draw19%

Afturelding20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchAfturelding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.35

KR Reykjavik

2.48

Afturelding

1.35

KR Reykjavik creates 84% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

2.96

creates per match

0.86

1.84

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

KR Reykjavik

2.96

Afturelding

0.86

allows per match

KR Reykjavik

1.84

Afturelding

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KR Reykjavik ↓

Afturelding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

KR Reykjavik or draw

80%

KR Reykjavik or Afturelding

81%

Draw or Afturelding

38%

Winning margin

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

40%

Afturelding wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

92%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

70%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

44%

Afturelding 1+ goals

74%

Afturelding 2+ goals

39%

Afturelding 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

76%

Afturelding (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.96, concedes 1.84 · 25 matches

Afturelding away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KR Reykjavik attack 2.96 + Afturelding defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Afturelding attack 0.86 + KR Reykjavik defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

KR Reykjavik scores more

62%

level

19%

Afturelding scores more

20%

KR Reykjavik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

E. Saebjornsson

27'

A. Johannsson

37'

M. Praest← O. Kjartansson

65'

A. Sigurjonsson← L. Rae

69'

A. Sigurjonsson

76'

A. Sigurdarson← A. Cosic

78'

L. Kassi← T. G. Hafthorsson

82'

S. Hugason← A. Johannsson

82'

A. Ragnarsson← A. Jonsson

89'

B. Runolfsson← G. Sigmarsson

90+2'

90+2'

90+3'

90+4'

90+4'

90+7'

90'

A. SaevarssonPenalty

90'

M. Akoto↳ A. Sigurdarson

90'

E. Cogic

KR

Afturelding

1

Andresson

25

Bjarnason

2

▼

Sigmarsso

3

Andresson

6

⚽

Saevarsso

7

▼

Johannsso

16

Barkarson

8

▼

Jonsson

21

▼

Hafthorss

10

⚽

77

12

15

4

⚽

7

21

29

77

▼

Kjartanss

17

▼

Rae

11

A

Sigurdars

19

▼

Cosic

9

⚽

Saebjorns

Manager: Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson

37'▲M. Praest←▼O. Kjartansson

65'▲A. Sigurjonsson←▼L. Rae

76'▲A. Sigurdarson←▼A. Cosic

KR Reykjavik substitutes

1Olafsson25Sigurdsson5Styrmisson27Hlynsson3Juliusson16Praest23Sigurjonsson6Sigurdarson20Andrason

Manager: Magnús Már Einarsson

78'▲L. Kassi←▼T. G. Hafthorsson

82'▲S. Hugason←▼A. Johannsson

82'▲A. Ragnarsson←▼A. Jonsson

89'▲B. Runolfsson←▼G. Sigmarsson

Afturelding substitutes

29Ingason12Johannesson79Dadason27Cogic19Hugason28Kassi4Runolfsson11Ragnarsson20Stokke

Match Recap: KR Reykjavik vs Afturelding

KR Reykjavik and Afturelding drew 2-2 in Úrvalsdeild on October 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Saebjornsson (13'), A. Saevarsson (90' pen), M. Akoto (90'), E. Cogic (90').

The match was played at KR-völlur in Reykjavík.

KR Reykjavik vs Afturelding — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KR Reykjavik vs Afturelding