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KPV-j vs VIFK — Ykkönen 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
VIFK
VIFK
6/29/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Round 13Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KPV-j50%
×Draw22%
VIFK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
2.04
VIFK
1.50

KPV-j creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.64
VIFK
1.64

allows per match

KPV-j
1.36
VIFK
2.43

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
72%
KPV-j or VIFK
78%
Draw or VIFK
50%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
29%
VIFK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
87%
KPV-j 2+ goals
60%
KPV-j 3+ goals
33%
VIFK 1+ goals
78%
VIFK 2+ goals
44%
VIFK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
64%
VIFK (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.64 + VIFK defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.04

VIFK attack 1.64 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KPV-j scores more
50%
level
22%
VIFK scores more
28%

KPV-j at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KPV-j 2 – 1 VIFK

KPV-j beat VIFK 2-1 in Ykkönen on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.