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KPV-j vs Rops — Ykkönen 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rops
Rops
9/15/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Promotion Group - 1Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

KPV-j42%
×Draw24%
Rops34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
1.63
Rops
1.46

KPV-j creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 48 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.64
Rops
1.56

allows per match

KPV-j
1.36
Rops
1.63

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
66%
KPV-j or Rops
76%
Draw or Rops
58%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
21%
Rops wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
80%
KPV-j 2+ goals
48%
KPV-j 3+ goals
22%
Rops 1+ goals
77%
Rops 2+ goals
43%
Rops 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
55%
Rops (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

Rops away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.63 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.64 + Rops defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rops attack 1.56 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KPV-j scores more
42%
level
24%
Rops scores more
34%

KPV-j at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: KPV-j 3–1 Rops

KPV-j beat Rops 3-1 in Ykkönen on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.