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KPV-j vs PIF — Ykkönen 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
PIF
PIF
7/16/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KPV-j54%
×Draw22%
PIF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
1.96
PIF
1.22

KPV-j creates 61% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.64
PIF
1.07

allows per match

KPV-j
1.36
PIF
2.29

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
76%
KPV-j or PIF
78%
Draw or PIF
46%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
32%
PIF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
86%
KPV-j 2+ goals
58%
KPV-j 3+ goals
31%
PIF 1+ goals
70%
PIF 2+ goals
34%
PIF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
70%
PIF (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

PIF away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.64 + PIF defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

PIF attack 1.07 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KPV-j scores more
54%
level
22%
PIF scores more
24%

KPV-j at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: KPV-j 2–1 PIF

KPV-j beat PIF 2-1 in Ykkönen on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.