KPV-j 4–1 Musa: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

KPV-j

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Musa

W. Wegye 90+1'

S. Mäkinen 88', 81'

S. Kähkönen 37'

R. Dieter 48'

10/16/2021

Ykkönen · Relegation Round - 2Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

KPV-j49%

×Draw24%

Musa27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KPV-jExpected goals in this matchMusa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

KPV-j

1.75

Musa

1.25

KPV-j creates 40% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

1.15

1.36

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

KPV-j

1.63

Musa

1.15

allows per match

KPV-j

1.36

Musa

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par

Musa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

Musa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw

73%

KPV-j or Musa

76%

Draw or Musa

51%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+

27%

Musa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals

83%

KPV-j 2+ goals

52%

KPV-j 3+ goals

25%

Musa 1+ goals

71%

Musa 2+ goals

36%

Musa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)

64%

Musa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Musa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.63 + Musa defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Musa attack 1.15 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KPV-j scores more

49%

level

24%

Musa scores more

27%

KPV-j at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

17'

18'

37'

46'

J. Heinonen← S. Amuzie

48'

R. Dieter

57'

J. Luoma

58'

60'

61'

61'

61'

O. Hakanpaa

68'

M. Koskinen← J. Heikkinen

74'

Wadir← R. Dieter

78'

W. Wegye← H. Heiermann

78'

S. Mäkinen← J. Lehto

81'

S. Mäkinen

86'

T. Laaksonen

86'

T. Laaksonen← N. Maeda

88'

A. Ahokangas← S. Kähkönen

88'

90'

90'

90+2'

90+1'

KPV-j

Musa

12

6

15

14

5

8

▼

Maeda

4

Virtanen

9

⚽

▼

Dieter

10

Sadat

11

▼

25

33

12

35

▼

21

77

8

20

▼

Heiermann

18

Andersen

6

Vidjeskog

9

▼

Lehto

16

⚽

▼

Kähkönen

Manager: N. Kalliokoski

46'▲J. Heinonen←▼S. Amuzie

78'▲W. Wegye←▼H. Heiermann

78'▲S. Mäkinen←▼J. Lehto

88'▲A. Ahokangas←▼S. Kähkönen

KPV-j substitutes

3Heinonen29Wegye15Mäkinen32Ahokangas23Vironen

Manager: V. Ulanen

68'▲M. Koskinen←▼J. Heikkinen

74'▲Wadir←▼R. Dieter

86'▲T. Laaksonen←▼N. Maeda

Musa substitutes

16Koskinen30Wadir23Laaksonen18Rantala24Heinilä29Kangaslahti34Simula

Ykkönen: KPV-j 4–1 Musa

KPV-j beat Musa 4-1 in Ykkönen on October 16, 2021.

Goals: S. Kähkönen (37'), R. Dieter (48'), S. Mäkinen (81', 88'), W. Wegye (90+1').

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.

KPV-j vs Musa — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: KPV-j 4–1 Musa