KPV-j 1–0 KuPS Akatemia: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

KPV-j

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KuPS Akatemia

5/3/2025

Ykkönen · Round 4Kokkolan keskuskentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KPV-j50%

×Draw22%

KuPS Akatemia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KPV-jExpected goals in this matchKuPS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.43

KPV-j

1.99

KuPS Akatemia

1.43

KPV-j creates 39% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 36 away

1.63

creates per match

1.50

1.36

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

KPV-j

1.63

KuPS Akatemia

1.50

allows per match

KPV-j

1.36

KuPS Akatemia

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par

KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

KuPS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw

72%

KPV-j or KuPS Akatemia

78%

Draw or KuPS Akatemia

50%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+

29%

KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals

86%

KPV-j 2+ goals

59%

KPV-j 3+ goals

32%

KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals

76%

KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals

42%

KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)

65%

KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.63 + KuPS Akatemia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.99

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.50 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KPV-j scores more

50%

level

22%

KuPS Akatemia scores more

28%

KPV-j at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff