KPV-j 1–3 Kooteepee: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

KPV-j

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Kooteepee

L. Nurmos 71' (OG)

M. Paavola 86'

Mika 82'

V. Laaksonen 55'

5/8/2022

Ykkönen · Round 3Kokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

KPV-j40%

×Draw24%

Kooteepee36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KPV-jExpected goals in this matchKooteepee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.52

KPV-j

1.62

Kooteepee

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 52 away

1.64

creates per match

1.69

1.36

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

KPV-j

1.64

Kooteepee

1.69

allows per match

KPV-j

1.36

Kooteepee

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

Kooteepee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw

64%

KPV-j or Kooteepee

76%

Draw or Kooteepee

60%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+

20%

Kooteepee wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals

80%

KPV-j 2+ goals

48%

KPV-j 3+ goals

22%

Kooteepee 1+ goals

78%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

45%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)

53%

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.36 · 86 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.64 + Kooteepee defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kooteepee attack 1.69 + KPV-j defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KPV-j scores more

40%

level

24%

Kooteepee scores more

36%

KPV-j at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

36'

36'

50'

53'

55'

57'

63'

P. Kytölaakso← R. Pietsalo

63'

W. Wegye← A. Ahokangas

67'

M. A. Junco Martinez

68'

S. Stenius← N. Ishii

68'

N. Leinonen← D. Ramadingaye

71'

L. NurmosOwn goal

81'

T. Agyiri← V. Laaksonen

82'

Mika

84'

R. Malolo← S. Mannström

86'

M. Paavola

90+4'

S. Mahlamaki

90+4'

R. Finnäs← S. Mahlamäki

KPV-j

Kooteepee

1

Lepola

3

🥅

Nurmos

4

▼

Mahlamäki

5

Ogungbaro

26

⚽

Paavola

32

▼

Ramadinga

8

⚽

▼

Laaksonen

23

Lindfors

7

Mäkelä

11

⚽

Mika

22

▼

33

12

21

2

5

32

▼

Ahokangas

19

Maeta

8

▼

Mannström

10

Heiermann

20

▼

Pietsalo

14

Kauppila

Manager: C. Sund

63'▲P. Kytölaakso←▼R. Pietsalo

63'▲W. Wegye←▼A. Ahokangas

84'▲R. Malolo←▼S. Mannström

KPV-j substitutes

7Kytölaakso9Wegye6Malolo11Paananen13Järvinen23Vironen

Manager: J. Leppälahti

68'▲S. Stenius←▼N. Ishii

68'▲N. Leinonen←▼D. Ramadingaye

81'▲T. Agyiri←▼V. Laaksonen

90+4'▲R. Finnäs←▼S. Mahlamäki

Kooteepee substitutes

15Stenius24Leinonen18Agyiri27Finnäs25Partanen10Mäkijärvi9Tarvonen

Match Recap: KPV-j vs Kooteepee

Kooteepee beat KPV-j 3-1 in Ykkönen on May 8, 2022.

Goals: V. Laaksonen (55'), L. Nurmos (71' o.g.), Mika (82'), M. Paavola (86').

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.

KPV-j vs Kooteepee — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KPV-j vs Kooteepee