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KPV-j vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

KPV-j
KPV-j
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
6/16/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsYkspihlajan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

KPV-j20%
×Draw21%
HJK Helsinki59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPV-j
1.09
HJK Helsinki
2.02

HJK Helsinki creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

KPV-j
1.60
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

KPV-j
1.40
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

KPV-j+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPV-j ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

KPV-j or draw
41%
KPV-j or HJK Helsinki
79%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
80%

Winning margin

KPV-j wins by 2+
7%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

KPV-j 1+ goals
66%
KPV-j 2+ goals
30%
KPV-j 3+ goals
10%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
87%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
60%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

KPV-j (draw refunded)
25%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPV-j at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPV-j attack 1.60 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.09

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + KPV-j defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KPV-j scores more
20%
level
21%
HJK Helsinki scores more
59%

HJK Helsinki at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KPV-j 0–2 HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat KPV-j 2-0 in Suomen Cup on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ykspihlajan kenttä in Kokkola.