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KPS vs TP-47 — Suomen Cup 2018

KPS
KPS
FT
1 – 15
HT: 1 – 5
TP-47
TP-47
4/22/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKipparihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KPS0%
×Draw1%
TP-4799%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPS
0.71
TP-47
9.04

TP-47 creates 1173% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

KPS
0.75
TP-47
11.33

allows per match

KPS
6.75
TP-47
0.67

finishing

KPS+0.00on par
TP-47+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPS ↓

TP-47 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–34%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 26% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
94%6%4.5
83%17%

Double chance

KPS or draw
1%
KPS or TP-47
99%
Draw or TP-47
100%

Winning margin

KPS wins by 2+
0%
TP-47 wins by 2+
96%

Team goals

KPS 1+ goals
51%
KPS 2+ goals
16%
KPS 3+ goals
4%
TP-47 1+ goals
100%
TP-47 2+ goals
99%
TP-47 3+ goals
97%

Draw no bet

KPS (draw refunded)
0%
TP-47 (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

TP-47 away — creates 11.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPS attack 0.75 + TP-47 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

TP-47 attack 11.33 + KPS defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 9.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

KPS scores more
0%
level
1%
TP-47 scores more
99%

TP-47 at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "TP-47 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KPS 1–15 TP-47

TP-47 beat KPS 15-1 in Suomen Cup on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Kipparihalli in Kokkola.